Atreidis
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BTC Signal Performance Report

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All metrics below are from backtests against historical data. Atreidis is a capital preservation signal, not a guaranteed profit tool. Always verify claims using the backtest modeler.

Signal Overview

The Atreidis signal has been tracking Bitcoin since 2011 — over 15 years of daily signal data. It produces 8-12 color changes per year, making it a low-frequency, high-conviction system designed for traders who want to avoid catastrophic drawdowns rather than catch every swing.

Data source: Bitstamp BTC/USD, 1-day candles Signal history: 2011-08-18 to present (5,287+ daily observations)

What the Signal Is Designed to Do

Let's be clear about what Atreidis is — and what it isn't.

It IS:

  • A capital preservation signal that aims to keep you out of the worst drawdowns
  • A risk management overlay for your existing portfolio
  • A systematic framework that removes emotional trading decisions
  • A low-frequency trigger (8-12 signals/year) — not a day-trading tool

It is NOT:

  • A moonshot indicator that catches every rally
  • A guaranteed profit system
  • An AI-powered black box
  • A replacement for your own risk management

The signal was refined through the Real Vision Discord community by an active trader who had been building indicators for years. It evolved from an experiment into a tool traders kept asking for — not because it made them rich, but because it kept them from blowing up.

Key Market Events

What the Signal Caught

The signal's strength shows in bear markets and black swan events. By design, it triggers defensive colors (yellow, orange, red) when volume, momentum, trend, and on-chain risk diverge from bullish alignment:

  • 2022 Bear Market — The signal transitioned to cautionary colors before the deepest drawdowns. Buy-and-hold from the 2021 peak dropped ~73%. Signal-following strategies with conservative parameters avoided the bulk of that decline.
  • Luna/UST Collapse (May 2022) — On-chain risk metrics flagged abnormal conditions before the full price impact.
  • FTX Collapse (Nov 2022) — The signal was already defensive before the contagion sell-off.

Where It Underperforms

Honesty about limitations matters more than cherry-picked wins:

  • V-shaped recoveries — When the market dumps and immediately bounces, the signal's 2-confirmation requirement on volume means it's slow to flip back to green. You may miss the first leg of a recovery.
  • Low-volatility grinds — In slow, steady uptrends, the signal stays green for months. That's fine for holders, but active traders may want more granularity.
  • Leveraged strategies in choppy markets — Frequent signal changes in sideways markets can whipsaw leveraged positions. The signal is best used with moderate leverage (1-3x) or spot.

How to Verify These Claims

We don't ask you to trust us. We built a tool so you don't have to.

  1. Go to the Backtest Modeler
  2. Select BTC and your date range of interest
  3. Configure your strategy (spot, perpetual, or buy-and-hold)
  4. Compare signal-based returns vs. buy-and-hold

Pick the worst periods. Pick the best periods. The signal's value isn't in maximizing returns — it's in minimizing regret.

Signal Statistics

Available for self-service verification in the backtest modeler:

  • 15+ years of daily BTC signal data
  • 127 crypto assets with daily price data for comparison
  • Perpetual futures modeling with real Hyperliquid funding rates
  • Spot strategy modeling with zero leverage
  • Full equity curve visualization
  • Metrics: total return, max drawdown, Calmar ratio, win rate, profit factor

We intentionally do not publish a single "headline number" for signal performance. Why? Because performance depends entirely on:

  • Your chosen date range
  • Your leverage and position sizing
  • Whether you trade spot or perps
  • Your entry/exit rules (which signal colors trigger trades)

A strategy that returns 200% with 5x leverage also risks liquidation. The same signal on spot might return 30% with a 10% max drawdown. Context matters. We give you the tools to find your own edge.

What's Next

We're expanding signal coverage beyond BTC. ETH signals are in development, with additional assets to follow based on community demand.

Weekly performance updates will be published as we build toward live trading execution on Hyperliquid. Follow us for signal change alerts and market commentary.

All performance data is generated by the Atreidis backtesting engine using real historical price data from Bitstamp and Binance. No metrics are fabricated. Verify everything at atreidis.com/backtest.